Workshop on Expert Judgement for Geographical and Adversarial Problems  

ICMAT, Campus de Cantoblanco, Madrid   

April 15 - 17, 2015   

Instituto de Ciencias Matemáticas
C/ Nicolás Cabrera, 13-15
  Campus Cantoblanco - UAM
  28049 Madrid, Spain
  Telephone: +34 91 2999700




Welcome to the webpage of the Workshop on Expert Judgement for Geographical and Adversarial Problems. The Workshop is funded by the ESF-COST Action IS1304 Expert Judgment Network: Bridging the Gap between Scientific Uncertainty and Evidence-Based Decision Making, the ICMAT-Severo Ochoa Program, the AXA-ICMAT Chair in Adversarial Risk Analysis and the UK ADLMC at Warwick project on displaying geographical uncertainty.

The idea is to focus on two relevant applied areas which require innovative fundamental contributions from the expert judgement arena: geographical and adversarial uncertainties.

  • The presentation, discussion, analysis and communication of geographical uncertainty. In managing many crises and quick moving events, geographical uncertainties come to the fore: e.g. uncertain extent of contamination or floods. Often there are temporal aspects: how soon might a plume of gas reach a particular point? Simply displaying and communicating such uncertainties is a cognitive challenge. Yet in any crisis experts are required to precisely that to inform emergency managers and other key decision makers, as well as inform the public. Equally many decisions on longer term policy need to take account of spatio-temporal uncertainties and thus there is a need to convey these to policy makers.
  • Adversarial uncertainties refer to cases in which one needs to forecast the actions of competitors ready to increase our risks and are the subject of recent intense work. Typical applications include homeland security, defence, cybersecurity, competitive marketing or auctions, in which we need to combine expert judgement techniques with game theoretic arguments.

Both issues meet in a middle ground when we, e.g., we need to assess security in urban spaces or need to allocate resources for a marketing campaign across a territory.

The workshop aims at reviewing recent developments and identifying working issues to be later developed at the COST IS1304 Action Working Groups meeting on Friday 17th. The workshop follows a COST ESR Training School on Applying Expert Judgement Methods to Real Problems.

We look forward to meeting you in Madrid!!!





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